2025 Predictions and November Highlights: Nashville Market Update

November Market Stats

November Key Takeaways

🤯 - New listings in November 2024 were down 11% year-over-year, but total inventory remains higher than 2022 and 2023 levels.

🍾 - Under-contract listings in November soared by nearly 30% compared to last year, likely driven by slightly lower interest rates preceding the September Fed rate cut.

📈 - Despite seasonal increases in months of supply and days on market, the median sales price climbed to $522,500, marking a 5.5% year-over-year increase.

👀 - With 30-year fixed rates hovering near 6.91%, affordability challenges persist. Achieving sub-5% rates in 2025 could dramatically reshape the market landscape.

November In-Depth Analysis

2025 Housing Market Predictions:

Before we jump into the Nashville housing market, many of the top real estate authorities just came out with their predictions on how the national housing market will perform in 2025.

Take a look below and let me know what you think!

Supply-Side:

Let's look at the supply-side of the market and start with the number of new listings added in November. Based on the data from Realtracs, 904 new listings were added in November 2024 compared to 1,013 in November 2023 (See chart below).

Just as I predicted a few months back, we'll likely end the year with about 14,500 new listings added to the market since January – on par with 2022 (See chart below).

Total inventory remains elevated compared to 2022 and 2023 levels, however, the gap is starting to close slightly. (See chart below).

Demand-Side:

Shifting to the demand-side, the number of homes that were under contract in November surprised to the upside! Compared to a year prior, the number of under-contract listings is up nearly 30% (See chart below)!

This is likely a byproduct of the slightly lower interest rates we experienced in the run-up to the September Fed rate cut.

Interestingly, the number of closings in November 2024 remained consistent with previous years (See chart below).

I predict the number of closings in December to outpace 2023 and 2024 as the homes that are currently under contract begin to close.

Even if we experience a strong December, it's likely that the aggregate number of closings since the beginning of the year will underperform 2023.

Supply vs Demand:

The Felix Market Meter remains unchanged compared to a month ago. Overall, the market throughout middle Tennessee seems to be healthy.

Things could change in 2025 based on the economic and political agenda. The main thing to be keeping an eye on is inflation since it plays a crucial role in determining interest rates.

The months of supply has increased with the seasonal trend as expected (See chart below).

Historically, months of supply is the highest in November so it will be interesting to see if it decreases when the December data is released.

Similar to the months of supply, the average days on market also increased with seasonal trends as homes stay on the market a bit longer (See chart below).

Home Prices:

Despite the increase in the months of supply, both the average and median sales prices were up in November (See chart below).

The median sales price increased to $522,500 – up over 5.5% compared to November 2023.

Mortgage Rates:

Mortgage rates continued to increase throughout the month of November as well. As of 12/3, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.91%.

All I can say is this Thanksgiving, I was thankful that rates dipped back below 7%.

That said, we're still a long way off from the sub-5% "Goldilocks zone". But, if we can achieve this in 2025, I think many of the "expert forecasts" above may need to make a revision.

Affordability Check-In:

Not much has changed on the affordability front. The average 30-year mortgage interest rate is the same as it was in 2022, however, the median sales price in Davidson County is up over 8% since then.

Keeping the loan amount constant, you can see that we're looking slightly better than 2023 but rates or prices have to come down to make housing truly affordable for the majority of Americans.

About Felix Homes

Felix Homes is where five-star service meets low commissions! To date, we've saved our clients $1,610,738 in commission fees and have earned 120 five-star reviews on Google!

How are we able to offer five-star service AND lower commission fees? It's simple:

• We're an independently owned brokerage – not a franchise which allows us to keep more of the commission we earn.
• By offering a lower commission, more folks want to work with us which means we close more deals. By closing more deals, we can pass more savings along to our customers!

If you have any questions about the state of the market or the home buying/selling process, please feel free to contact us at contact@felixhomes.com or 615-354-5731.